A groundbreaking collective study sheds light on the global ripple effects of escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel, with a sharp focus on the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for energy and trade flows.

The report, titled Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: The Price of a Distant War, brings together insights from leading international experts, including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh, and Rida Lyammouri. While the analysis spans multiple regions, North Africa emerges as a particularly sensitive area, especially Morocco.

The findings underscore how a potential disruption in Hormuz would send shockwaves through global supply chains, given the strait’s role in transporting a significant share of the world’s oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and other vital commodities. The study highlights Morocco’s heightened exposure to such a crisis, with sectors like agriculture, construction, transport, and energy-dependent industries facing severe vulnerabilities.

Using an input-output economic model, researchers assessed the impact of a 20% spike in oil prices on North African economies. The results reveal a stark contrast in outcomes: Morocco stands out as the most exposed, facing potential disruptions across key sectors. Meanwhile, Egypt could see partial gains from increased state revenues, while Tunisia maintains a balanced outlook despite sectoral disparities.

Beyond economic fallout: a shifting global order

The study goes further, framing the 2026 conflict as a turning point in international relations. Ferid Belhaj argues that the crisis exposes the weakening of traditional cooperation mechanisms amid a fragmented global system. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas suggests the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved. Ian Lesser, meanwhile, examines how the war has deepened transatlantic divisions over military intervention and crisis management.

The report also warns of heightened risks to Africa’s energy security, the fragile balances in the Sahel, and the economic stability of South American nations. It emphasizes the growing importance of strategic minerals in reshaping global geopolitical dynamics.

For Moroccan readers, the takeaway is clear: the country’s economic resilience could be severely tested by a Hormuz-related oil shock. The study serves as a wake-up call, urging policymakers to prepare for disruptions that could ripple through supply chains, energy markets, and geopolitical stability for years to come.

Key findings at a glance:

• Morocco is identified as the most vulnerable North African economy to an oil price shock triggered by a Hormuz crisis.
• Agriculture, construction, transport, and energy-reliant industries are particularly at risk.
• Egypt may benefit partially from higher oil revenues, while Tunisia remains relatively balanced.
• The conflict signals a broader shift in the global order, with fractures in cooperation and a rise in multipolar power dynamics.