Recent events in Senegal have rapidly unfolded, marked by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s dismissal of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko on Friday, May 22. This separation had become almost unavoidable over time, fueled by escalating political tensions and increasingly public disagreements between the two leading figures of the executive branch in the Land of Teranga.

Immediately following this, Malick Ndiaye, the President of the National Assembly, declared his resignation from his parliamentary leadership role, though not from the legislative body itself. This move appears to be a pre-planned strategy to pave the way for the former Prime Minister, who has sought to reclaim his seat as a Member of Parliament.

The rift appears complete

The Parliament is scheduled to address this matter on May 26, convening for an extraordinary session to elect its new president. All indications suggest that, barring a major upset, Ousmane Sonko, the former mayor of Ziguinchor, who was removed from the premiership under widely known circumstances, is poised to assume leadership of the Parliament. This strategic position would allow him to continue his direct confrontation with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

The critical question now is: how far will this conflict between the two former allies escalate? This query gains particular weight given that, beyond the former National Assembly President’s resignation—which appears to be a show of loyalty to the ex-Prime Minister—Ousmane Sonko is expected to have little difficulty, should he desire it, in being elected as Speaker within a National Assembly overwhelmingly controlled by Pastef (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l’éthique et la fraternité). The ruling party, where Sonko remains the prominent figure, commands a substantial majority with no fewer than 130 out of 165 parliamentary seats.

This underscores the significance of Tuesday’s session, which offers the former Prime Minister a clear path to remain central to the political landscape and within the highest echelons of state decision-making by assuming leadership of the Parliament. This is a highly strategic position, especially as the break appears definitive between the Thiès-born politician and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is driven to assert his own authority and emerge from the shadow of his former mentor.

Ousmane Sonko’s potential for obstruction

Nevertheless, this clash of ambitions between former comrades who have ascended to the highest levels of state power risks plunging Senegal into an institutional crisis. This is particularly true if, as the situation unfolds, Ousmane Sonko is indeed elected President of the National Assembly following the May 26 session. Such an outcome would position him as the second most powerful figure in the state and the constitutional successor to the President.

From this vantage point, he could at any moment impede government actions by leveraging the legislative power he would command. It remains uncertain just how far this rivalry between the two leaders of the ruling party will extend. Indeed, if they are not careful, this situation could severely undermine the party’s cohesion. With these two prominent figures in open conflict, one might question whether Pastef is prematurely sabotaging its own stability.

It is evident that since their rise to power, Ousmane Sonko has been eager to assume the role of leader in place of Bassirou Diomaye Faye, whom he propelled into the presidency under well-known circumstances (Sonko himself was deemed ineligible to run in the 2024 presidential election following an appeal in May 2023).

Furthermore, his current open conflict with the head of state suggests he has no intention of merely remaining in the President’s shadow. He likely believes he possesses ample political leverage to pursue his presidential ambitions, overcoming the judicial hurdles encountered in 2024.

A delicate balance of power

This ambition is especially bolstered by the new Electoral Code, which was swiftly adopted on May 12. This revision aims to clarify eligibility criteria and prevent the disqualification of candidates for political motives, though some opposition voices perceived it as a mechanism to facilitate the candidacies of both Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

While the staunch opponent of former President Macky Sall can still claim significant popularity within the party he founded, his eligibility for the next presidential election, slated for March 2029, is likely to remain contentious until the Constitutional Council issues a definitive ruling.

Therefore, should the rivalry between these two prominent figures intensify at the highest levels of government, it could lead to a precarious Je te tiens, tu me tiens dynamic, which bodes ill for Senegal. This is particularly concerning for Pastef, which risks being outmaneuvered by a third contender in upcoming elections, especially if it faces a protest vote, a phenomenon well-known to Senegalese voters.

For now, there is hope that reason will prevail for the nation’s greater good, ensuring that Senegal does not become a casualty of the escalating rivalries between these two political leaders who initially pledged a new era of governance.