Senegal’s shifting political alliances: how transhumance reshapes power

One reality has become impossible to ignore in Senegalese politics: alliances are now fluid, shifting with political winds rather than ideological conviction. Yet this wasn’t always the case. While shifting allegiances and cross-party coalitions predate the 2000 transition, what changed after that pivotal year was their scale, visibility, and direct connection to governance. Under Abdou Diouf’s presidency, the Socialist Party remained dominant, but cracks began forming in its ranks. Key figures like Djibo Ka broke away, forming the Movement for Renewal in March 1998, which later became a core component of the Democratic Renewal Union (URD). By the May 1998 legislative elections, the URD secured 13% of the vote and 11 seats out of 140. Just months later, on June 16, 1999, Moustapha Niasse—another Socialist heavyweight—publicly distanced himself from the party, launching the African Forum for Progress (AFP) in July and gaining legal recognition by August. These departures signaled the unraveling of the once-solid Socialist bloc ahead of the 2000 presidential election.

1999-2000: The first major shifts

The 2000 presidential election served as the proving ground for this new political landscape. In the first round on February 27, Abdou Diouf led with 41.3%, followed by Abdoulaye Wade at 31%, Moustapha Niasse at 16.8%, and Djibo Ka at 7.1%. By the second round on March 19, Niasse threw his support behind Wade, while Ka ultimately backed Diouf instead. Wade’s victory with 58.5% marked the end of 40 years of Socialist rule and introduced a defining feature of modern Senegalese politics: the boundaries between opponents, allies, and former comrades grew increasingly porous.

Wade’s rise to power accelerated this trend. His first government, formed in April 2000, was a patchwork of leaders from diverse backgrounds—AFP members, PIT affiliates, AJ/PADS activists, and others from the Alternance coalition, many of whom held ideologies far removed from the PDS’s liberalism. Moustapha Niasse became Prime Minister on April 5, 2000, only to be dismissed on March 3, 2001. By the April 29, 2001 legislative elections, Wade’s Sopi coalition dominated with 89 out of 120 seats, while the Socialist Party collapsed to just 10 seats; the AFP won 11, the URD took 3, and And-Jëf secured 2. The transfer of power wasn’t just a change in leadership—it was a complete political reconfiguration.

It was also after the 2000 transition that transhumance politique—the overnight political migration—became a defining term in Senegalese discourse. Local officials, party leaders, and even civil servants rapidly switched allegiances to align with the new ruling party. Academic research and media reports at the time documented these abrupt shifts, which became a hallmark of Senegal’s evolving political culture. Djibo Ka embodies this era: after initially supporting Wade in the 2000 runoff, he returned to Wade’s government in 2004, only to realign again later.

From Wade to Sall: transhumance scales up

Under Abdoulaye Wade, the practice of political migration solidified. The PDS and its Sopi coalition absorbed figures from increasingly varied backgrounds, not just for ideological alignment but for electoral, territorial, institutional, and even personal reasons. By 2004, Wade’s government was dominated by the PDS, yet included several figures from other political traditions; Djibo Ka, for instance, was reinstated as a minister.

However, it was under Macky Sall that political transhumance reached its most dramatic political dimensions. Following his 2012 victory, Sall’s Benno Bokk Yaakaar coalition united former adversaries under a single banner. Over time, the APR sought to expand its base, systematically reducing space for opposition forces. The phrase often attributed to Sall—“reducing the opposition to its simplest expression”—became a defining slogan of this era, sparking intense debate even within his own camp. Sall publicly defended the idea that political affiliation should remain a matter of personal choice, rejecting the pejorative label of transhumance. This stance further blurred the line between majority and opposition, turning fluid alliances into a structural feature of Senegalese politics.

PASTEF: the counter-migration

The rise of PASTEF in recent years introduced a new dynamic. After 2019, the movement didn’t only attract politicians seeking to join the ruling party—it also drew figures who began distancing themselves from Macky Sall’s administration to rally behind Ousmane Sonko and later Bassirou Diomaye Faye. While not all realignments toward PASTEF fit the traditional definition of transhumance—some were strategic electoral alliances, others genuine commitments—this reverse migration became unmistakable. The promise of the 2024 alternation reshaped political lines, culminating in Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s first-round victory under the PASTEF-led coalition.

2026: Kiiraay and the next test for Senegalese politics

On July 25, 2026, Bassirou Diomaye Faye took a decisive step by launching Kiiraay—Les Patriotes Républicains, born from the transformation of the “Diomaye Président” coalition. According to reports, 437 parties and movements merged into this new formation, which positions itself as an “open house” built on ethics, transparency, and the principle of “serve, not be served.”

The central question now is how Kiiraay will manage the influx of leaders, elected officials, and activists from diverse political backgrounds. Motivations vary: some may genuinely embrace a new vision for the country, others may see an opportunity, and a few might be settling old scores or seeking protection. Without concrete evidence, attributing such motives would be speculative.

What matters most is not the sheer volume of these realignments, but their political quality. A party that rapidly absorbs figures from all origins risks replicating the very practices it claims to reject. Conversely, a movement that welcomes newcomers without diluting its core values, integrates without losing identity, and transforms alliances into meaningful programmatic commitments could pioneer a new political culture. The real test for Kiiraay lies in how it absorbs this wave: with what philosophy, under what rules, and through what strategy? History shows that winning over individuals is easy; building a shared political culture is far more challenging.