Senegal’s political crisis: navigating a delicate balance of power

Since March 2024, the political alliance between Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko, both key figures of the PASTEF party (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l’éthique et la fraternité), has evolved into a tense power struggle reshaping Senegal’s institutional landscape. The dismissal of Sonko from the Prime Minister’s post, followed by his return to the National Assembly and subsequent election as its president, marks an unprecedented chapter in the country’s political history.

This dynamic pits a president with extensive constitutional powers against a political leader who commands unwavering support from his party and maintains a dominant majority in parliament. The evolving power dynamics between these two figures now hinge on strategic leverage and the factors that will shape their future interactions.

What does the Diomaye-Sonko crisis reveal about power structures in Senegal?

This confrontation between the president and his former prime minister—now speaker of the National Assembly—undeniably qualifies as a political crisis. While Senegal has historically operated under a presidential system with a dominant ruling party in parliament, the current situation introduces an unexpected cohabitation scenario.

It remains premature to draw definitive conclusions, as developments continue to unfold. However, the crisis already tests the resilience of Senegal’s political system and its ability to navigate instability. Such moments often reveal the true strength of institutions and their capacity to adapt.

Every political transition offers an opportunity to assess the robustness of a nation’s governance framework. Can Senegal’s system accommodate a genuine division of power at the highest levels? Or will it revert to the strong centralized executive model that has defined its politics since 1963? The answers will emerge in due course, but restraint in governance appears crucial to preserving stability.

Is this crisis part of Senegal’s historical rivalry between presidents and prime ministers—or a departure from tradition?

This crisis represents a break from precedent. Since independence in 1960, only one comparable standoff between President Léopold Sédar Senghor and Prime Minister Mamadou Dia in 1962 posed a threat to institutional stability.

Context is key to understanding the current situation. The president holds sweeping constitutional authority, including defining national policy that the prime minister must implement. Yet Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s rise to power was made possible by Ousmane Sonko’s decisive endorsement as the PASTEF candidate.

The clash arises from two distinct sources of legitimacy: the president’s legal authority and the prime minister’s political control over the party and broad popular support. The November 17, 2024 legislative elections—where PASTEF secured 130 of 165 seats—demonstrate this influence. Meanwhile, the upcoming 2027 local elections may serve as a corrective mechanism in an already contentious cohabitation period.

What resources of power do Faye and Sonko each command?

Political parties thrive on mutual exchange: militants provide organizational strength, while parties offer material and symbolic rewards. In this context, both leaders can leverage expertise and consolidate electoral backing.

Ousmane Sonko’s position is reinforced by his unanimous election as PASTEF president during the June 6, 2026 congress, as well as his control over a supermajority in parliament. His legislative bloc wields significant constitutional tools, including oversight of government actions, policy evaluations, and the power to trigger motions of no confidence.

Bassirou Diomaye Faye, as head of state, retains formidable institutional resources, though he depends on parliamentary cooperation to exercise certain prerogatives. His symbolic authority as president remains a powerful asset in navigating the crisis.

Which factors will determine the balance of power between the two camps?

The outcome will hinge on several key variables, with elections serving as the primary regulatory mechanism. A credible and transparent electoral calendar, coupled with moderation in governance, will be essential to preventing escalation.

Public perception of both leaders’ governance styles will weigh heavily on the equation. The effectiveness of policy alternatives, demands for public accountability, calls for justice for victims of political violence between 2021 and 2024, and the moralization of public life are all decisive factors.

While Senegal’s electoral and party systems are designed to stabilize democracy, flaws such as opaque processes or unchecked executive power can erode trust. If institutions fail to deliver fairness and restraint, the risk of mass mobilization or unrest may rise, as seen in previous crises.