On the surface, the nations within the Sahel belt – a geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad – hardly present themselves as a burgeoning economic powerhouse. To put it plainly, this isn’t the Singapore of foreign direct investment. Key economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal significant challenges. In Mali, a striking 47% of its 25.9 million residents are under 15 years old, only 25% of the land is arable, and the country ranks 188th out of 193 in the UNDP’s Human Development Index. Nearly 45% of its population struggles below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey report comparable statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty (World Bank data). All three are landlocked nations, currently led by military regimes that have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This alliance, implicitly sanctioned by the Kremlin, seeks to diminish remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was purportedly meant to usher in prosperity for their citizens, a prosperity they claimed was withheld by Europeans, but this has not materialized. Nevertheless, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are now actively offering their strategic services to the region.
Morocco: forging an atlantic gateway
With the ongoing construction of the Dakhla Atlantic port, the Kingdom of Morocco is developing a strategic facility in the Western Sahara, designed to mirror the success of Tanger Med as a European hub. This ambitious project is slated for completion by 2028, with operations commencing the following year. The core vision for this infrastructure is to serve as a pivotal entry point for West Africa and a direct conduit to the Americas. Rabat has already hosted the three leaders of the AES, presenting a compelling geopolitical proposition: a deep-water port that would eventually connect to a proposed railway line (though not yet formalized). Such a network would provide the three landlocked Sahelian nations with crucial ocean access, thereby alleviating their geographical isolation and fostering economic growth. For Morocco, which faces geographical constraints due to its dispute with Algeria, this initiative simultaneously demonstrates that its Western Sahara development plan benefits the entire sub-region. Furthermore, it posits that economic advancement can indirectly combat the jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by offering a lifeline to a desperate youth population, especially considering the region’s rapidly increasing birth rate, which is projected to double its population within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline for europe
Algeria, having previously experienced strained relations with Niger, mended ties in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government. Algeria proposed initiating construction on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline’s segment through Niger “immediately after Ramadan.” This crucial pipeline, originating in Nigeria, would now traverse Niger before reaching Algeria, ultimately supplying natural gas to Europe. Spanning 4800 kilometers, this project would see Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbon company, manage construction within Nigerien territory and provide training to Nigerien personnel for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building offers a distinct advantage over some Chinese projects, which often do not prioritize training local populations in the management of their national resources.
two complementary strategies, yet in opposition
In Madrid and later in Washington (February 23rd and 24th), discussions began regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara. Should this conflict, now in its fiftieth year, finally be resolved, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s explosively complex security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the AES member states from exploiting the existing rivalries between the two regional capitals.
Jihadism thrives on the twin scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently seeking to disrupt this destructive dynamic. Each nation leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s technical expertise, while Morocco highlights its grand infrastructure projects and ambition to become a central hub connecting Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, despite being inherently complementary, unfortunately remain in opposition due to the persistent Sahara conflict. This is a missed opportunity for broader regional stability.
*On September 26, 2025, Malian Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga controversially demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Ahmed Attaf, Algeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, condemned this as “thug’s bluster.”