Gabon’s rising public debt: 94.3% of GDP by 2027 raises concerns

Gabon’s public debt continues its upward trend, with projections indicating it will reach 94.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, according to budget forecasts discussed in Libreville. This trajectory, initiated during the transitional presidency and reinforced under the leadership of Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, pushes the country perilously close to the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) convergence criteria, which cap debt at 70% of GDP.

Debt escalation sparks financial partner concerns

The rapid increase in Gabon’s debt stock contrasts sharply with commitments made to multilateral lenders regarding fiscal discipline. Despite steady oil revenues and a rebound in manganese prices—of which Gabon ranks among the world’s top producers—the government struggles to free up funds for debt reduction. A growing portion of state revenue is now consumed by debt servicing, leaving fewer resources for critical investments in infrastructure and social services.

This situation has been exacerbated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suspending disbursements under its Extended Credit Facility in early 2024, citing governance gaps and uncontrolled spending. Without an active program with the IMF, Libreville has increasingly relied on regional public debt markets and bilateral financing, both of which carry higher costs than concessional lending windows.

The gamble of public spending-led recovery

Since taking office in August 2023 following the ouster of Ali Bongo Ondimba, General Oligui Nguema has positioned public procurement as a cornerstone of political legitimacy. A surge in infrastructure projects—including roadworks, social facility upgrades, and housing programs—has been launched with a bold narrative aimed at signaling a break from past mismanagement. However, this spending spree has widened the primary deficit and led to mounting arrears owed to state contractors.

Official budget documents indicate that Gabon’s public debt is projected to climb from around 73% of GDP in 2024 to 94.3% by 2027. This three-year surge reflects a growing reliance on borrowing rather than internal revenue mobilization. Gabon’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio remains a persistent irritant in discussions with international partners.

Budget sovereignty and investor signals

For Gabon, an active sovereign issuer on international markets through multiple eurobonds, the trajectory of its debt has direct implications for its credit rating. Rating agencies have repeatedly adjusted the country’s outlook, reflecting uncertainty over fiscal sustainability and the ability to refinance upcoming maturities. A sustained breach of the 90% of GDP threshold could lead to higher borrowing costs and a shrinking investor base for future bond issuances.

Across the subregion, CEMAC partners are closely monitoring Gabon’s situation, fearing that a single-country debt crisis could destabilize the shared foreign exchange reserves managed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Regional monetary authorities have repeatedly emphasized the need for a return to sustainable debt levels, especially as neighboring countries like Chad, the Republic of the Congo, and Cameroon also grapple with elevated debt burdens.

The credibility of Gabon’s announced fiscal path now hinges on political transition. The shift to a civilian constitutional framework, formalized through a November 2024 referendum and the April 2025 presidential election, theoretically paves the way for renewed financial cooperation programs. Yet, achieving this will require pairing infrastructure ambitions with a credible austerity plan—one that prevents public debt from becoming a structural vulnerability for Gabon’s economy in the medium term. Official projections explicitly include the 94.3% of GDP target for 2027.