Eastern DRC: leadership struggles within AFC/M23 amid military expansion debates

The latest United Nations expert report on the Democratic Republic of Congo has shed light on deep divisions within the Alliance Fleuve Congo/Mouvement du 23 mars (AFC/M23), revealing how competing ambitions and resource disputes are destabilizing the rebel coalition operating in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces.

At the heart of these tensions lies the divided leadership of the AFC/M23, where military and political factions remain at loggerheads over strategic direction. While figures like Corneille Nangaa and former President Joseph Kabila reportedly harbor ambitions to extend influence toward Kinshasa, the movement’s operational commanders have resisted proposals for military expansion beyond their traditional strongholds in eastern DRC.

Military command structure under strain

The report highlights that despite growing internal dissent, General Sultani Makenga continues to hold the top military position within AFC/M23. However, his authority is increasingly contested not only within the movement’s ranks but also by external backers in Rwanda, which continues to provide logistical and intelligence support to the rebel group.

The political leadership, spearheaded by Nangaa and Bertrand Bisimwa, maintains formal control over the movement, but their ability to consolidate power is undermined by persistent disagreements over territorial control and resource allocation. Sources cited in the report point to allegations of preferential treatment toward Tutsi officers and fighters within the AFC/M23’s ranks, fueling resentment among non-Tutsi members.

Territorial divisions and combatant estimates

The report divides the AFC/M23’s occupied territories in eastern DRC into three distinct defense zones, each under the command of a different military leader:

• Zone 1: Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Lubero territories, commanded by General Baudoin Ngaruye
• Zone 2: Masisi and Walikale territories, led by Brigadier General Justin Gacheri Musanga
• Zone 3: South Kivu province, under the control of General Innocent Byamungu

The report estimates the AFC/M23’s total fighting force at approximately 30,000 combatants. This number includes:

• A hard core of former members from the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) and the original M23 rebel group
• Recruits mobilized since 2021, drawn from the Rwandan diaspora and refugee camps
• Defectors from the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC), National Police, and Wazalendo militias who joined after the fall of Goma
• Members of newly formed local defense units and police forces

Diplomatic deadlock complicates resolution

The internal fractures within AFC/M23 coincide with stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. Despite the Washington Agreement and multiple rounds of negotiations under Qatari mediation, Kinshasa and Kigali continue to interpret key provisions differently, preventing meaningful progress. The anticipated breakthrough from the Montreux process in Switzerland failed to materialize, and the escalating crisis in the Middle East has further sidelined Congo-related peace initiatives.

With the humanitarian and security situation in eastern DRC continuing to deteriorate, the report underscores the urgent need for coordinated regional and international intervention to prevent further destabilization of an already fragile region.