Uefa champions league: crvena zvezda seeks comeback against hapoel beer sheva

The majestic Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade is set to host a crucial UEFA Champions League third qualifying round second leg on August 11, 2026. FK Crvena Zvezda will face Hapoel Beer Sheva in a high-stakes encounter, with the Serbian giants looking to overcome a narrow 1-0 deficit from the first leg played on neutral ground at Haladás Sportkomplexum. The home side is fighting for their continental survival, while the Israeli team arrives with a precious advantage, fueled by dreams of reaching the coveted group stage.

Season context

FK Crvena Zvezda has showcased significant attacking prowess throughout this qualifying campaign. In three matches, the Serbian squad has netted an impressive nine goals while conceding only one, securing two victories and suffering a single defeat. Their journey includes dominant home wins, such as a 5-0 thrashing, and a convincing 0-4 away triumph. This demonstrates a prolific offense, averaging 3.0 goals per match, complemented by an almost impenetrable defense, allowing just 0.3 goals per game. The objective is clear: reverse the first-leg score to keep their UEFA Champions League group stage aspirations alive.

Hapoel Beer Sheva has presented a robust challenge in their qualification efforts, recording two wins and one loss in three outings. They have found the back of the net four times and conceded only twice. Their home performances have been particularly strong, with two 2-0 victories highlighting their ability to control matches and maintain clean sheets. However, their sole away fixture resulted in a 2-1 defeat. With an average of 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match, Hapoel Beer Sheva brings a slender yet valuable lead to Belgrade.

Recent form and momentum

Crvena Zvezda approaches this pivotal match with a mixed recent form, reflected in a “WWL” sequence: two initial victories followed by the 1-0 loss to Hapoel Beer Sheva. Despite this setback, their overall momentum remains impressive, particularly defensively, having conceded just one goal in three matches, and offensively, with nine goals scored. This ability to secure large wins, contrasted with a tight defeat, suggests a team that can be overwhelmingly dominant when dictating play but potentially vulnerable when matches become more constrained.

Conversely, Hapoel Beer Sheva’s recent form shows a “LWW” pattern over their last three games: an initial 2-1 away loss, followed by two consecutive victories (2-0 and 1-0). Their progression is evident, with their defense solidifying as the campaign advances, marked by two successive clean sheets. They have also maintained consistent offensive output, scoring at least once in every match. This positive trajectory, built on a compact organizational structure, makes them a formidable opponent to break down over 90 minutes.

Head-to-head encounters

The history between these two clubs is relatively brief but already holds significant weight. On August 4, 2026, at Haladás Sportkomplexum, Hapoel Beer Sheva gained the upper hand by defeating FK Crvena Zvezda 1-0 in their UEFA Champions League encounter. This victory on neutral territory established a crucial precedent: the Israeli side demonstrated their capability to neutralize the Serbian attack in a knockout scenario. As the only competitive meeting between the two teams in this campaign, this result casts a long shadow, compelling Crvena Zvezda to not only erase the memory of that defeat but also reverse the overall trend.

Tactical outlook

Crvena Zvezda is expected to maintain their preferred tactical setups, primarily alternating between a 4-3-2-1 (deployed twice) and a 4-2-3-1 (once). These formations have been instrumental in the Serbians’ nine-goal tally across three matches, highlighted by emphatic 5-0 and 0-4 victories. Their offensive dynamism is often driven by creative midfielders like M. Ivanić and A. Katai, who excel at finding pockets of space between defensive lines. Upfront, attackers such as Bruno Duarte and J. Enem offer varied options for targeting the opposition’s penalty area. Defensively, the central core, featuring Rodrigão, M. Veljković, and N. Tiknizyan, has demonstrated remarkable solidity, securing two clean sheets in three games, which allows their full-backs to push high up the pitch.

Hapoel Beer Sheva relies on a consistent 4-3-3 formation, utilized in all three of their matches, reflecting a clear identity: a compact defensive block, swift transitions, and offensive width. The Israeli side has scored four goals in three games while maintaining an unblemished home record, largely due to an experienced backline of M. Vítor, O. Davidzada, and M. Baltaxa, supported by a hardworking midfield trio of E. Peretz, Lucas Ventura, and R. Levy, adept at closing down spaces. In attack, players like D. Biton, E. Almog, or Z. Ahmed are capable of exploiting any gaps behind the Serbian defense, especially if Crvena Zvezda commits heavily forward to chase the game.

The tactical battle promises to be a clash of styles: Serbian creativity and offensive power against Israeli discipline and pragmatism. Crvena Zvezda must devise strategies to penetrate a compact block that has already proven capable of stifling their attack for 90 minutes, all while remaining vigilant against the counter-attacking threats posed by Hapoel Beer Sheva’s well-drilled 4-3-3.

Statistical snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Champions League, 2026 season — August 11, 2026.
• Stadium: Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade.
• Model Prediction: Winner: FK Crvena Zvezda.
• Result Probabilities: Home Win 45% / Draw 45% / Away Win 10%.
• Comparative Model: FK Crvena Zvezda 62.0 — Hapoel Beer Sheva 38.0.

Betting verdict

Bookmakers unequivocally position Crvena Zvezda as the favorites for this home fixture, with odds for a Serbian victory typically ranging from 1.25 to 1.33. This implies a high probability of success, approximately 75% to over 80%, depending on the operator. A draw is offered at odds between 5.00 and 6.48, suggesting an implicit probability of 15% to 20%, while an away win for Hapoel Beer Sheva is priced between 8.00 and 9.95, indicating a 10% to 12% chance.

Aligning these odds with the prevailing sports data, a wager on a Crvena Zvezda victory appears well-founded. The Serbian side boasts a significantly more productive attack, with nine goals in three matches, coupled with a near-perfect defensive record. Furthermore, the comparative model grants them a substantial overall advantage of 62.0 against Hapoel Beer Sheva’s 38.0. However, the 1-0 success of Hapoel Beer Sheva in the first leg serves as a crucial reminder: the Israeli team demonstrated their ability to shut down play and protect a lead. Therefore, while a Crvena Zvezda win is the favored outcome, it is prudent to acknowledge that a tight contest, potentially with a minimal goal difference, remains a distinct possibility.