Tchad-Soudan: a closed border and suspicions that weaken N’Djamena amid rising regional tensions

As the Sudan conflict intensifies, Chad faces mounting pressure along its southeastern frontier. Nearly a million civilians have fled the war in Sudan, with over 100,000 crossing into Chad in recent weeks—including 6,000 from the besieged city of El Fasher in North Darfur. This influx has pushed Chad’s already fragile infrastructure to its limits, exposing deep vulnerabilities in a nation grappling with decades of regional instability.

Border tensions: a powder keg at 1,300 kilometers of vulnerability

The vast, porous border between Chad and Sudan spans nearly 1,300 kilometers of arid and lawless terrain—historically a conduit for armed groups, smugglers, and rebel movements. Today, this region is under further strain as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) extend their control across Darfur, raising alarms in N’Djamena.

Since late 2024, military provocations have escalated sharply. In December, a drone strike reportedly killed two Chadian soldiers, while a January 2025 RSF incursion near Tiné left seven dead. In response, Chad has sealed its border entirely, citing credible threats of direct spillover into its territory.

Accusations and denials: Chad caught in the crossfire

Chad publicly maintains a stance of neutrality in the Sudan conflict. Yet satellite intelligence and investigative reports suggest weapons supplies from the United Arab Emirates may have transited through Chad to bolster RSF forces. N’Djamena vehemently denies these claims, pointing to its own victimization—including cross-border raids and airstrikes targeting Chadian territory.

Internal fissures have further complicated the situation. In April 2025, several high-ranking officers—many from the Zaghawa ethnic group, long opposed to the RSF—were purged from the security apparatus, signaling deepening distrust within Chad’s military leadership.

Diplomatic realignment: N’Djamena turns to Paris for support

After a period of strained relations, Chad is rekindling its alliance with France. Once a key provider of intelligence and logistical support—critical for securing its porous border—Paris has reduced its engagement in recent years. The reopening of diplomatic channels with President Mahamat Idriss Déby now emerges as a strategic lifeline for Chad, especially as tensions with Sudan reach a boiling point.

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