Morocco’s population in 2060: urban growth and aging population trends

Morocco’s demographic landscape by 2060: key projections

Morocco’s Haut-commissariat au plan has unveiled its latest population projections, covering the years 2024 to 2060. These forecasts explore various scenarios based on fertility rates, mortality trends, and migration patterns, offering a detailed glimpse into the country’s demographic future.

Population growth slows to a near halt

Under the most likely scenario, Morocco’s population is expected to grow from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million by 2060, representing a 17.8% increase over 36 years. This translates to an average annual addition of roughly 182,000 people. The annual population growth rate, currently estimated at 0.7%, is projected to gradually decline, eventually stabilizing near zero by 2060. This marks a significant shift from decades of steady growth, signaling a phase of near demographic stagnation.

Urban expansion accelerates, rural areas shrink

The urban population is set to surge, reaching approximately 32.5 million by 2060—comprising nearly three-quarters of the total population. Conversely, rural areas will see a decline, with the countryside’s population shrinking to around 10.8 million. This disparity underscores the need for targeted public policies in housing, infrastructure, and social services to address territorial imbalances and mitigate urban challenges.

Meanwhile, the Haut-commissariat au plan emphasizes the urgency of bolstering rural development. Enhancing living conditions and creating economic opportunities in rural areas could help retain young populations, preserve local resources, and maintain social and territorial cohesion.

Declining youth populations reshape education needs

The anticipated drop in birth rates will significantly reduce the number of young people. The preschool-age group (4-5 years) is projected to shrink by 23.8%, from 1.25 million to 0.96 million. Similarly, the primary school-age population (6-11 years) will decrease by 27%, falling from 4.16 million to 3.04 million. The first cycle of secondary education (12-14 years) will see a 22.9% decline, while the 15-17 age group will contract by 11.4%.

These trends present an opportunity for education policy reform. With fewer students to accommodate, resources previously allocated to expanding classroom capacity could be redirected toward improving teaching quality, enhancing pedagogical support, and enriching curricula.

Working-age population grows unevenly

The working-age population (15-59 years) is expected to increase from 22.08 million to 24.96 million by 2060, a rise of 13.1%. However, this growth will be unevenly distributed. Urban areas will see a 34.4% increase—from 14.2 million to 19.1 million—while rural regions will experience a 25.4% decline, shrinking from 7.9 million to 5.9 million. This urban-rural divide will intensify pressure on urban labor markets, particularly as rural-to-urban migration continues.

The 18-24 age group, key contributors to the workforce, will see a slight national decline of 3.1%, though urban areas will experience an 11.3% increase, while rural regions face a 28.3% drop. Meanwhile, the 50-59 age bracket will surge by 44.9% nationally, with urban areas seeing a 76.6% rise compared to a 17.4% decline in rural zones.

Aging population redefines social and economic priorities

Morocco’s population aged 60 and above will more than double, rising from 5 million to 10.9 million by 2060. This group will represent 25.2% of the total population, up from 13.6% in 2024. The urban elderly population will grow 2.5 times, from 3.18 million to 8.06 million, while rural areas will see a 1.6-fold increase, from 1.81 million to 2.83 million.

This aging trend is driven by the decline in fertility since 1975—the start of Morocco’s demographic transition—and improvements in life expectancy. A particularly sharp rise will occur among those aged 70 and older, whose numbers will triple from 2.06 million to 6.3 million. Urban areas will see a 256% increase in this age group, while rural regions will experience a more modest rise.

Public policies must adapt to demographic shifts

The Haut-commissariat au plan warns that accelerating aging will increase the dependency ratio—the proportion of dependents (young and elderly) relative to the working-age population. This shift will pose challenges in pension financing, healthcare access, and intergenerational solidarity, especially as traditional rural-urban family structures weaken.

The institution stresses that population aging is an irreversible structural trend, regardless of the scenario. It calls for immediate policy adjustments in education, employment, urban planning, and social protection to ensure Morocco navigates this transformation successfully. The country’s future will be shaped not by rapid growth, but by adapting to a slower, older society.