Tchad’s economic outlook improves with stable S&P rating

Standard & Poor’s recent decision to maintain Chad’s sovereign credit rating at B- with a stable outlook serves as a powerful endorsement of the country’s economic recovery strategy. The announcement, made in mid-March, validates the vision outlined in the 2030 Tchad Connexion National Development Plan. The agency’s confidence reflects Chad’s solid economic momentum, characterized by steady growth, controlled debt levels, and consistent support from international partners, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Growth revised upward to 5.2% by 2025

Chad’s economic rebound, which began in 2023 following the recovery of hydrocarbon prices and service sector revival, has gained significant traction. Standard & Poor’s now forecasts real GDP growth of 5% for 2025, surpassing its December 2024 projection of 3.6% annual growth between 2024-2027 by 1.5 percentage points.

The International Monetary Fund has similarly upgraded Chad’s growth outlook to 5.2% for 2025. This optimism stems from expanded agricultural output and the revitalization of non-oil sectors, though hydrocarbons remain crucial, accounting for a substantial share of exports and public revenue. Meanwhile, agriculture and services continue to bolster domestic demand.

Public debt remains under tight control

Chad has made remarkable strides in public finance management, particularly in reducing its debt burden after years of vulnerability. Public debt currently stands at approximately 36% of GDP, a moderate level compared to regional peers. In 2022, Chad became the first country globally to utilize the G20 Common Framework for debt treatment, successfully restructuring its external obligations.

Concessional debt—loans with favorable repayment terms—now represents about half of Chad’s total debt. This restructuring has restored financial flexibility, making the country more attractive to investors and enabling implementation of the Tchad Connexion 2030 National Development Plan. Authorities continue to pursue prudent fiscal policies, balancing debt sustainability with investment in social programs and infrastructure.

Domestic revenue mobilization shows strong progress

Chad has achieved significant milestones in domestic revenue collection, a critical component of its ongoing economic reforms. The tax-to-GDP ratio, though still modest, rose from 9.8% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023, according to OECD data. This improvement signals expanded tax bases and enhanced tax administration efficiency.

In 2025, non-oil revenues have exceeded expectations, supported by robust non-hydrocarbon activity and measures implemented under the July 2025 IMF program worth $625.3 million. The digitalization of public finances and strengthened governance have further boosted collection efficiency.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the stable rating affirms Chad’s financial credibility, strengthening its appeal for private investment and reinforcing confidence among international partners in the reform agenda.

How Tchad Connexion 2030 is unlocking economic potential

The progress highlighted by S&P’s stable rating must be sustained across key pillars: economic diversification, improved tax revenue mobilization, sustainable debt levels, and critical infrastructure investments. These priorities are at the heart of the Tchad Connexion 2030 National Development Plan.

Adopted by the Council of Ministers on May 29, 2025, this plan follows Chad’s political transition that began with President Idriss Déby Itno’s passing in April 2021 and concluded with the new Constitution and National Reconciliation Dialogue in May 2024.

With economic emergence as its goal, Chad secured $20.5 billion in funding from public and private partners in Abu Dhabi in November 2025 to finance its strategic plan. Encompassing 268 cross-sectoral projects, the plan aims to lift 2.6 million citizens out of poverty by 2030 through 8% annual growth, expanding GDP by 60% over the same period.

The plan is structured around four core pillars:

• Accelerating strategic infrastructure development: electricity, water, transportation networks, and telecommunications.
• Enhancing social policies: education, healthcare, vocational training, youth employment, and social inclusion.
• Economic diversification: developing export-oriented sectors in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, hydrocarbons, mining, and tourism, with a focus on local value addition.
• Improving the business environment: through administrative simplification and regulatory streamlining.