Senegal’s 2026 budget revision: how the deficit surge hits households, businesses and the Pastef majority

The revised 2026 budget now under debate in Senegal’s National Assembly pushes the deficit to 1,735.2 billion FCFA, a move that threatens public investment and deepens political tensions for the Pastef majority as it faces a vote with real consequences for households and businesses.

The text has been on the deputies’ table since September 18, and it may well be the most uncomfortable vote of the legislature. As they examine the 2026 revised finance law, the Pastef majority must choose between two bad options: approve a budget tied to the agreement with the IMF, or risk being accused of paralyzing the state. Every answer carries a political cost.

At its core, the revised law deeply reshapes the year’s accounts. The budget deficit is revised to 1,735.2 billion FCFA, or 7.6% of GDP, up from an initial 5.4%. The government attributes the deterioration mainly to higher subsidies for the energy sector, the absorption of new priority spending, and lower revenues.

The energy line concentrates most of the shock. The envelope to support the sector jumps from 250 billion to 790.3 billion FCFA, an increase of 540.3 billion. At the same time, expected revenues fall to 5,848.7 billion FCFA, 340.1 billion less than the 6,188.8 billion projected in the initial finance law. The executive justifies the revision by the effects of the global energy crisis and a rainfall deficit.

To contain the drift, the text sacrifices investment. The government plans a 555 billion FCFA cut in investments, split between domestic and external resources. In return, some social safety nets are strengthened: the family security grant envelope rises from 35 billion to 70 billion FCFA. Finally, authorities aim to bring energy subsidies below 1% of GDP by 2029, while better targeting vulnerable households. It is this last orientation that crystallizes concerns over the price of electricity and fuel.

Voting yes: endorsing an agreement they criticized

This law is not a simple accounting adjustment. It comes after the agreement reached between Senegal and the IMF, which remains subject to approval by the Fund’s Board. The staff-level agreement covers $2.2 billion over 36 months.

By Daniel Mbami — Politics and Security