Sonidep’s 2026 loss: how Niger’s cheap fuel policy is draining the state oil company

Niger’s insistence on freezing pump prices is finally landing on the books of its national oil company in the form of deep red ink. The latest International Monetary Fund projections show the Société nationale des pétroles du Niger (Sonidep) heading toward a net loss of 28 billion FCFA for the 2026 financial year, caught between a surge in domestic demand and the heavy cost of buying fuel abroad.

A deficit shaped far beyond Niger’s borders

The pressure did not start inside the country. When Nigerian President Bola Tinubu removed petrol subsidies, a sizeable share of regional consumption shifted toward Niger, where prices were still held artificially low. Fuel sold in Niger looked like a bargain next to what drivers were paying across the border, and the effect was twofold: more litres burned locally and a steady stream of vehicles crossing over to refuel.

Zinder’s refinery cannot keep pace

The Société de raffinerie de Zinder (Soraz) operates under a production ceiling, which makes it impossible for the plant to serve the whole national market by itself. Rather than allow shortages at the pump, Sonidep was left with no choice but to order large volumes of imported fuel — purchased at full international prices and resold domestically at a loss.

The whole bill comes to 42 billion FCFA

Holding the posted price steady, and in doing so shielding household purchasing power, carries an overall import subsidy cost estimated at 42 billion FCFA for 2026. The financing plan designed to absorb that amount lands squarely on the state operator:

• 15 billion FCFA will be drawn from Sonidep’s price stabilisation mechanism and fund, wiping out the company’s precautionary reserves.
• The remaining 28 billion FCFA will close the year as a direct net loss in the accounts of the state-owned firm.

Dividends that will never reach the treasury

The fallout does not stop at Sonidep’s balance sheet; it also reaches the national budget. The government had been counting on 3.3 billion FCFA in dividends linked to the public company’s performance, but the revised Fund forecasts bring that direct fiscal revenue down to zero.

Social calm today, financial fragility tomorrow

By allowing Sonidep to absorb the oil shock instead of revising pump prices or strictly controlling cross-border flows, the authorities are buying short-term social peace. What remains unresolved is how long the country’s leading fuel distributor can keep serving as a tariff shield while giving up its profitability and eating into its own capital.