Senegal’s political rift: Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko’s inevitable clash

Ousmane Sonko could have shrewdly recognized the National Assembly as his ideal vantage point from the outset, a strategic position to patiently await 2029, especially following his party, Pastef’s, overwhelming victory in the November 2024 legislative elections.

Sonko likely believed that closely shadowing President Faye and directly exercising executive powers was the most effective way to prevent Faye from developing an independent taste for the presidential office, initially allowing Faye to act as a more ceremonial figure. However, as Machiavelli wisely cautioned, power transforms, and he who enables another’s rise to power often seals his own downfall.

The inevitable unfolding, regrettably!

Senegal’s presidential system inherently centralizes authority, leaving little room for any figure beyond the President of the Republic. Even an exceptionally influential Prime Minister ultimately functions as merely a first among equals.

Sonko soon found his influence constrained within the government. A pivotal moment arrived on July 1, 2025, when the Supreme Court declined to overturn the ruling that rendered him ineligible for the 2029 elections, casting a shadow over his political future. Compounding this, he perceived a lack of concern from President Faye regarding his predicament. This prompted the ever-present political strategist within Sonko to reassert himself. With institutional avenues increasingly closed, he chose to re-engage through populist agitation, sometimes pushing boundaries, as evidenced by the circumstances surrounding his assumption of leadership in the National Assembly. This move, backed by sheer numbers, now serves as his stronghold, seemingly without fear of the alleged malfeasance that Senegal’s sparse opposition attributes to him. Only President Faye possesses the authority to refer the legality of Sonko’s parliamentary maneuver to the Constitutional Council, an action he has, for now, opted against.

President Diomaye Faye’s calculated inaction!

In the land of Lat Dior Diop, the revered 19th-century king of Cayor and a national hero in the anti-colonial struggle, political dynamics are rarely straightforward. Disregarding constitutional articles and subsequent laws offers little insight into the current power play. Paraphrasing Senegal’s national motto, there are two key players and a singular objective. President Diomaye Faye, known for his shrewdness, and Ousmane Sonko, the «Djambar» or «hurricane,» are these central figures. Their ultimate goal: the 2029 presidential election.

These two political heavyweights wield distinct advantages. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye commands the state institutions and the rule of law. Ousmane Sonko, on the other hand, relies on the unwavering strength of his dedicated supporters within a well-organized party, and he demonstrates a willingness to challenge established norms without hesitation.

Strategic deployment of resources: a political chess match.

Ousmane Sonko’s control of the National Assembly undeniably grants him a significant power base. However, this position is vulnerable due to several factors: the methods employed in his legislative takeover, the looming threat of parliamentary dissolution, and crucially, the potential charge of malfeasance should the Constitutional Council deem his re-entry as a deputy illegal.

Meanwhile, President Faye appears to be exercising patience. Having distanced himself from the potentially disruptive presence of Sonko, he aims, alongside his new Prime Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, to stabilize economic affairs in collaboration with international financial institutions. He is fully aware that a direct confrontation is inevitable and is reportedly preparing for it with a strong inner circle.