One year on: assessing the impact of the trump-backed peace deal between Rwanda and drc

a fragile ceasefire and lingering tensions

Twelve months after the historic peace accord brokered by former United States President Donald Trump between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the region remains on edge. The agreement, signed in early 2025, aimed to end decades of hostilities linked to M23 rebels and cross-border clashes. Yet, despite initial optimism, fragility persists in the truce, with sporadic violence flaring up across North Kivu.

The M23 movement, which had captured Goma in February 2026, remains a point of contention. While the group’s leadership claims adherence to the accord, Congolese officials and regional observers argue that its fighters continue to operate with limited oversight. The DRC government, led by President Félix Tshisekedi, has repeatedly accused Rwanda of providing covert support to the rebels—accusations that Kigali firmly denies.

economic and humanitarian ripple effects

The prolonged instability has taken a severe toll on both nations. In Rwanda, trade disruptions with the DRC have strained economic growth, while in the DRC, internally displaced persons (IDPs) have surged past 2.5 million. Aid organizations warn of a humanitarian crisis deepening, with food shortages and healthcare access deteriorating in conflict-ridden zones.

International donors, including the United States, have pledged $500 million in emergency funding to stabilize the region. However, aid workers highlight bureaucratic hurdles and security risks as major obstacles to effective relief distribution. The African Union has called for unified regional action, but progress remains slow amid diplomatic gridlock.

military and political dynamics shift

The accord’s implementation has also exposed Rwanda’s shifting alliances. President Paul Kagame has leveraged the agreement to reposition his country as a key mediator in Great Lakes regional stability. Meanwhile, DRC officials have rallied domestic support by framing the deal as a sovereignty victory—a narrative that resonates with Congolese citizens weary of foreign interference.

Military observers note that while Rwandan troops have scaled back direct involvement, proxy militias continue to operate along the border. The DRC’s FARDC (Armed Forces) has intensified counterinsurgency operations, but success hinges on coordinated regional cooperation—a goal that feels increasingly distant.

what’s next for the fragile truce?

As the anniversary of the accord passes, DRC and Rwanda face a critical juncture. President Tshisekedi has demanded verifiable troop withdrawals from rebel-held territories, while President Kagame insists on joint security patrols as a trust-building measure. The United Nations has stationed 14,000 peacekeepers in the DRC, yet their mandate faces growing skepticism.

For the agreement to endure, both governments must address core grievances: Rwanda’s security concerns over Hutu rebel groups, and the DRC’s demand for unconditional withdrawal of all foreign-backed forces. Without tangible steps toward reconciliation, the truce risks becoming another failed initiative in a cycle of violence that has plagued the region for generations.