Eastern drc: christian moleka assesses military and diplomatic efforts

During a recent live Space discussion hosted by Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, political analyst Christian Moleka provided a comprehensive evaluation of Kinshasa’s military and diplomatic strategies concerning the ongoing conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Moleka pointed out that despite a substantial budget of 4.5 billion dollars allocated between 2022 and 2025 under the military programming law, the operational outcomes on the ground have not met expectations. The Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) have notably failed to regain the upper hand against the M23 rebels (AFC/M23) since the strategic town of Bunagana fell in 2022.

From a diplomatic standpoint, the analyst acknowledged several significant breakthroughs. These include the implementation of European Union sanctions against Rwanda, a discernible shift in Washington’s perspective on the conflict, and the unanimous adoption of a United Nations Security Council resolution. However, Moleka highlighted a persistent gap between these diplomatic achievements and the stark realities encountered on the battlefield. He referenced a report by the UN Group of Experts, which indicated that the M23 had expanded its occupied territory by an additional 35% since the Doha agreements. He concluded that these diplomatic tools have only yielded “partial, short-lived results.”

When pressed on where the primary responsibility for this mixed outcome lies, Christian Moleka’s response was unequivocal: “I would say it’s predominantly military.” He drew an analogy, comparing the relationship between diplomacy and military engagement to a two-person dance. “One cannot maintain a strong diplomatic stance without a robust military component to support it,” he asserted. According to Moleka, the international gains secured by Kinshasa risk being undermined in the long run if they are not bolstered by a more favorable military balance of power.

Moleka concluded his analysis by placing the conflict within a broader historical context, describing it as a “war of attrition” that has spanned three decades. In such a conflict, he emphasized, “it’s not the intensity that matters, but the capacity to endure for a long time.” This enduring challenge, he believes, equally confronts both Congolese diplomacy and its armed forces.