Cocoa export outlook threatened by El Niño in Côte d’Ivoire

The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export campaign—with nearly 1 million tonnes already sold under contracts for the 2026-27 harvest—faces potential disruptions due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, according to industry insiders and agricultural commodity traders. To manage stock levels, the Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has raised its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, as confirmed by sectoral sources.

The renewed demand strength and tightening market conditions ahead of the new season, set to begin on September 1st, have driven these measures. « We’ve already secured between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming harvest, but we’ve chosen to proceed cautiously and slow the pace, » explained a spokesperson from the Conseil du Café et du Cacao.

Trading firms anticipate export volumes of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, justifying the higher premiums set by the CCC. « The market conditions allow them to be more assertive. The Council doesn’t need to lower the premium to secure deals, » noted a representative from a cocoa trading company.

However, this positive momentum could be abruptly halted by El Niño, which threatens to induce drought conditions across major cocoa-producing nations, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Such a scenario would severely disrupt harvests and global supply chains.

Many exporters argue that the most pressing concern for 2027 lies not in climate patterns but in the chronic shortage of fertilizers and phytosanitary products, exacerbated by aging cocoa plantations in Côte d’Ivoire and widespread crop diseases. « I don’t view El Niño as the primary threat to production. The real challenge is the lack of access to fertilizers and crop protection chemicals, » emphasized the director of an Abidjan-based export firm.